“Total Federal Inmates,” as reported by BOP, drops below 165,000

Another Thursday brings another new check on the federal Bureau of Prisons’ updated “Total Federal Inmates” numbers.  In prior posts here and here, I highlighted that, according to BOP’s reporting of the numbers, throughout the month of April the federal prison population was shrinking about 1,000 persons per week.  As we now move from May into June, the new numbers at this webpage are continuing to show weekly declines checking in around 1,100 on average: the BOP reported population dropped from 167,803 (as of May 14, 2020) to 166,647 (as of May 21, 2020) to 165,575 (as of May 28, 2020) to now a BOP reported total of 164,438.

I have repeatedly suggested that a reduced inflow of federal inmates — due to many sentencings and reportings to prisons being delayed — has likely been playing a big role in the significant reported population declines in recent months.  But, in this post noting a BOP press release about coming inmate transfers, I wondered if the historic COVID-era decline in the BOP numbers might be mostly an artifice of 6,800 federal prisoners not being officially “counted” while being held in local detention facilities during the COVID shutdown.  But this week shows reported  declines continuing at a steady pace, and so I am left to continue muttering about not “really” knowing just what is represented by the reported federal prison population or about how best to accurately gauge COVID’s impact. 

A few of many prior related posts:

• Federal prison population, thanks in part to the FIRST STEP Act, hits lowest level in over 15 years (from July 2019)
• Federal prison population, due seemingly to COVID responses, hits another modern low (which is still very high) (from April 2020)
• According to BOP reporting, federal prison population now shrinking about 1,000 persons per week (from April 2020)
• Federal prison population drops below 170,000 for first time in nearly two decades (from May 2020)
• As federal prison population continues remarkable decline, can anyone predict what might be a new normal? (from three weeks ago)
• Is the number of federal prisoners about to spike up as BOP moves nearly 7000 new inmates into federal facilities? (from two weeks ago) 
• Federal inmate population, as reported by BOP, continues steady decline (which continues my wondering about data)(last week)