A Good Friday update on the relatively good homicide news from cities to start 2023

A few months ago, in this post just a few weeks into 2023, I flagged the AH Datalytics collection of homicide data from police reports in nearly 100 big cities.  I noted in that post that, after significant increases in homicides throughout the US in 2020 and 2021, the dashboard showed that nearly two-thirds of big cities reported homicide declines in 2022 relative to 2021 and that nationwide murders in large cities were cumulatively down nearly 5% for 2022.  

Of course, these reported homicide declines for 2022 followed particularly high homicide rates in many locales in 2021, and we still have a way to go to get back to pre-pandemic homicide levels.  But I found the nationwide city homicide data to be encouraging for 2022, the now we have additional data suggesting the positive recent homicide trends are continuing and perhaps even accelerating across cities.  Specifically, according to this AH Datalytics webpage which is now updated with early 2023 data from police reports, there is so far cumulative 10% decline in murders across the nation’s cities for roughly the first quarter of 2023. 

And, as I have done for some prior recent posts on homicide rates, this morning I also took a closer look at a few updated police reports to see about 2023 homicide trends in our biggest US cities: 

Chicago homicides down 14% in 2022, and down another 15% in first three months of 2023

Houston homicides down 9% in 2022, and down another 34% in first two months of 2023

Los Angeles homicides down 5% in 2022, and down another 26% in first three months of 2023

New York City homicides down 11% in 2022, and down another 11% in first three+ months of 2023

Philadelphia homicides down 9% in 2022, and down another 14% in first three months of 2023

As I have said before, these homicide data from cities are likely not fully representative of what may be going on with homicides nationwide, and it seems that the homicide data from the month of March in the biggest cities are not quite as positive as they were to start the year.  Moreover, homicide trends are always unpredictable and data can change in lots of ways.   Still, these new encouraging nationwide homicide data from the AH Datalytics webpage continue to reinforce my hope that the surging number of homicides in just about every part of the US through 2020 and 2021 were mostly a pandemic era phenomenon and that lower homicide rates may soon be more common.