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Start-of-summer update on the relatively good homicide news from cities in first half of 2023

By Douglas Berman

In this post from early April 2023, I flagged the AH Datalytics collection of homicide data from police reports in nearly 100 big cities to note that, after significant increases in homicides throughout the US in 2020 and 2021, homicide declines in 2022 were continuing into the start of 2023.  Of course, homicide declines for 2022 followed particularly high homicide rates in many locales in 2021, and we still have a way to go to get back to pre-pandemic homicide levels.  Still, I found the nationwide city homicide data to be encouraging for 2022 and early 2023, and now we have even more data suggesting positive recent homicide trends are continuing and perhaps even accelerating across big cities. 

As we head into the unofficial start of the summer months, according to this AH Datalytics webpage, there is now so far cumulative 12% decline in murders across the nation’s cities for more than the first third of 2023.   And, as I have done in some prior recent posts on homicide rates, I find it interesting (and now encouraging) to took a closer look at a updated police reports showing 2023 homicide trends in our very biggest US cities: 

Chicago homicides down 14% in 2022, and down another 7% over nearly five months of 2023

Houston homicides down 9% in 2022, and down another 28% over the first fourth months of 2023

Los Angeles homicides down 5% in 2022, and down another 28% over nearly five months of 2023

New York City homicides down 11% in 2022, and down another 13% in first three+ months of 2023

Philadelphia homicides down 9% in 2022, and down another 15% over first five months of 2023

As I have said before, these homicide data from cities are likely not fully representative of what may be going on with homicides nationwide, and homicide trends always seem to be unpredictable and data can change in lots of ways in coming months.  Still, the latest nationwide homicide data from the AH Datalytics webpage continue to reinforce my hope that the surging number of homicides in just about every part of the US through 2020 and 2021 were mostly a pandemic era phenomenon and that homicide rates may nor be trending back toward pre-pandemic norms.