Homicides still way down as weather (and crime politics) heats up in 2024
A few days ago, I received an alert from my local paper about this article reporting that “data from the Columbus Division of Police showed that the city is experiencing some of the lowest levels of violence in a decade.” According to this press piece, the biggest city in Ohio has recorded only 18 murders in this calendar year, compared to 41 at this time last year. The article also flagged that a number of other cities have also seen significant homicide declines.
Conveniently and encouragingly, Jeff Asher posted yesterday this new substack entry detailing that Columbus, Ohio is not alone in experiencing a significant homicide decline to start 2024. Folks should read his full posting for lots more context and details, but here are some highlights:
[M]urder is down around 20 percent in 2024 in more than 180 cities with available data this year compared to a comparable timeframe last year (as of the moment of this piece’s publication). Murder is down 20.5 percent in 183 cities with available data through at least January, down 20.2 percent in 174 cities with data through at least February, and down 20.8 percent in 59 cities with data through at least March 20….
We could still see, and perhaps should expect to see the sample’s murder decline to regress towards a more normal rate of decline as the year goes on. It’s only April and there is a ton of time left in 2024 for these figures to regress, but murder is down roughly twice as much with a sample that’s twice as large as what we had last year at this time…. Murder is down more than 30 percent at the moment in Washington DC, New Orleans, Las Vegas, Cleveland, Milwaukee, Detroit, Columbus, Nashville, Philadelphia, and I could keep going….
It’s not just murder data in cities pointing to a large decline. Shooting data from the Gun Violence Archive shows a decline of around 12 percent in terms of shooting victims through March compared to 2023. This matches the trend of declining shootings in 20 of the 25 cities with available shooting data through at least February this year.
As readers may recall from prior posts, 2023 brought a considerable (perhaps historic) decline in homicides in the US compared to 2022 (which saw a small decline in homicides after very significant increases in homicides throughout the US in 2020 and 2021). And my check today at the latest AH Datalytics’ collection of homicide data for 2024 from 250+ US cities shows now an 18.8% cumulative decline(!) in murders across the nation’s cities through more than the first third of 2024. And a number of big cities are showing even bigger 2024 declines from police reports: Washington DC and Milwaukee homicides are down around 25%; Cleveland, Dallas and Phoenix homicides are down nearly 30%; Baltimore, Columbus, New Orleans and Philadelphia homicides are down more than 40%.
I am not sure criminologists have a clear story for why we are not seeing historicthe homicide declines, but the many hundreds of fewer murders to start 2024 is certainly something to celebrate and to hope continue. (I noted in a prior post that the 2023 and 2024 declines in homicide come at a time of relatively low use of the death penalty and relatively lower rates of incarceration by US standards.) Of course, these remarkable homicide numbers could change in the months ahead, and the hotter weather of summer months historically bring an uptick in homicides.
Also sure to heat up this summer are crime politics. I flagged in this post yesterday a recent Politico article quoting aides of President Biden suggesting the Pesident was planning to embrace tougher approaches on crime and immigration. And today bring this lengthy New York Times piece headlined “Even as Violent Crime Drops, Lawlessness Rises as an Election Issue.” Here is a small excerpt:
Homicide rates are tumbling from pandemic highs in most cities, funding for law enforcement is rising, and tensions between the police and communities of color, while still significant, are no longer at a boiling point. But property crime, carjackings and smash-and-grab burglaries are up, adding to a sense of lawlessness, amplified on social media and local online message boards.
Mr. Trump is re-upping his blunt, visceral appeal to voter anxieties. He declared recently that “crime is rampant and out of control like never before,” promised to shoot shoplifters, embraced the “back the blue” slogan against liberal changes to police departments — and even falsely accused the F.B.I. of fabricating positive crime data to bolster Mr. Biden.
Mr. Biden, in response, is taking a more low-key approach. He has spotlighted improving violent crime rates, promoted vast increases in funding to law enforcement under his watch and pointed to an aggressive push on gun control, as well as a revived effort to hold local departments accountable for discriminatory and dangerous policing practices in Black and brown neighborhoods.