US Sentencing Commission FY 2025 third quarter federal sentencing data shows growth in immigration cases

I just saw that yesterday the US Sentencing Commission released here its latest federal sentencing quarterly data report which is titled “3rd Quarter Release, Preliminary Fiscal Year 2025 Data Through June 30, 2025.” Because these data only capture a little more than five months of sentencing data since the Trump Administration took charge of the US Justice Department, it is probably still a bit too soon to start assessing just where and how this Administration’s new priorities are reflected in the 2025 patterns of federal sentencing outcomes.

That said, there are still a couple of notable data points in this latest USSC data run that are worth flagging. Figures 1 and 2 in this new report document that there has been a noticeable uptick in immigration cases and downtick in drug cases as a percentage of the overall caselooad. As I have noted before, for Fiscal Year 2024 (which ended September 31, 2024), the USSC data showed 30% of the federal cases sentenced were immigraton cases, and 29.6% were dug cases. But these latest FY 2025 third quarter federal sentencing data show that over the last nine months, 35.7% of the federal cases sentenced were immigraton cases, and 25.7% were dug cases. Figure 2 tells this story in a slightly different way, showing that well over 5000 immigration cases were sentenced in federal courts from April 1 to June 30, 2025, which is more than in any single quarter since the pandemic.

Because immigration cases are such a big slice of the federal sentencing pie, and because immigration cases result generally in shorter prison sentences (and then deportation), the uptick in immigration sentencings likely accounts for a general reduction in overall average sentences in the federal system so far in FY 2025 relative to FY 2024. For the whole federal sentencing system in Fiscal Year 2024, the mean sentence reported by the USSC was 52 months and the median was 24 month. The latest FY 2025 third quarter federal sentencing data from the USSC indicate that this FY the mean in 49 months and the median in 21.  But if on looks at the median and mean sentences for specific offenses like drugs or fraud, it appears that FY 25 data show a slight increase (though this might be explained primarily by various case mix factors as there continues to be increases in the percentage of meth and fentanyl sentencings, and those drugs carry the longest prison average prison terms among all the drug cases).  The immigration uptick also likly explains why the data show a slight increase in “Within Guideline Range” sentences.

That all said, much of the other data in this latest data report shows the relative steadiness of federal sentencing patterns even when it feels like there have been massive changes brought by new leadership at the Justice Department.  I expect future USSC data runs may reflect and reveal still developing changes resulting from new Justice Department leadership, but the federal sentencing behemoth seems to jeep moving at a mostly consistent clip despite a range of potential upheavals.