Encouraging Real-Time Crime Index update on 2024 crime trends

I have noted in prior posts the development and launch of a new crime data resource, the Real-Time Crime Index.  Late last week, I recevied this email about the latest crime data from this resource (and the email also discusses a bit of its methodology).  Here is how the email summarize its collection of national crime data:

Overview

The Real-Time Crime Index (RTCI)’s newest update has now posted. The RTCI is identifying national crime trends in both violent and property crimes across a large sample of cities through August 2024.  The full nationwide sample for August 2024 consists of 289 agencies covering nearly 75 million people with data from January 2017 through August 2024.

Murder is down 16 percent in the full nationwide sample through August 2024 with a 4 percent decline in violent crime and a 9 percent decline in property crime in the sample.  Every category of crime measured by the RTCI is showing a decline so far in 2024 ranging from a 3 percent decline in aggravated assaults to a 20 percent decline in motor vehicle thefts.  

Remarkably, if this reported decline in homicides in 2024 proves representative for the whole nation and if it persists as the year concludes (always big “ifs”), it seems possible that this year could conclude with near modern record low homicide rates in the US comparable to what we experienced in the US in the early 2010s.