Latest, greatest, post-Rita sentencing statistics

I am pleased to see on the US Sentencing Commission’s Booker webpage that the USSC has released its latest quarterly data analysis.  Here is the current description with a link:

FY2007 4th Quarterly Sentencing Update:  An extensive set of tables and charts presenting cumulative quarterly data on cases sentenced in fiscal year 2007.  The numbers are prepared using data sentenced by close-of-business on June 30, 2007 and received, coded, and edited by the Commission by November 28, 2007.

(I believe the June 30 reference is a typo, because the underlying data report runs through Sept. 30, 2007.)

This latest data run is interesting in part because the latest quarter reflects the post-Rita universe in the district courts.  Rita was decided on June 21, 2007 and so all the sentencings in the period from July 1 to Sept. 30 were handed down after Rita.  It is also interesting because this last quarter also reflects a period in which the USSC’s lowered crack guidelines were still just proposals (not to become effective until November 1, 2007.)

Though most of the data presented in this latest data run are cumulative data for the full fiscal year, Figures A and B seem to reveal that the number of within-guideline sentences went UP after Rita.  However, set in a broader context, the data spotlight (a) the remarkable stability to be found in the post-Booker federal system, and (b) that changes by the US Sentencing Commission to particular guidelines may have the greatest predictable impact on sentencing outcomes.

Needless to say, as my recent article suggests in its title, Rita, Reasoned Sentencing, and Resistance to Change, I am not surprised than not much has changed since Rita.