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Should we care that Cameron Douglas, though sentenced to 5 years in prison, will likely be out in 2012?

By Douglas Berman

I had a wonderful discussion with my sentencing class this morning about the realities of the Cameron Douglas sentencing and his forthcoming prison term.  We discussed the legal reality that, because parole was eliminated from the federal sentencing system via the Sentencing Reform Act of 1984, the 5-year prison term he was give yesterday (basics here) “really meant” he was subject to being incarcerated for half a decade.  But then we got into the practical realities of calculating his “real” time, and we discovered that he might be out of federal prison as early as 2012.  Here’s why:

1.  Cameron Douglas was given credit yesterday for the 8 months he has already served pending sentencing, so his 60-month sentence already has only 52 months left.

2.  Cameron Douglas, like all federal prisoners, can earn up to 15% off his sentence for “good time.”  Though the exact calculation of that time is now an issue pending before the Supreme Court in Barber v. Thomas (background here), it seems fair to assert that Douglas will be able to earn at least another 8 months off his sentence if he behaves himself.  Thus, his “real” federal prison term is potentially down to 44 months.

3.  Cameron Douglas, like many federal prisoners struggling with substance abuse, should be eligible for the RDAP program (background here), which could lead to a reduction of another year off his sentence.  Thus, his “real” federal prison term is potentially down to 32 months.

If my basic analysis and math is right (and I am not an expect on these back-end prison law issues), it seems that Cameron Douglas might be able to celebrate Hanukkah and Christmas 2012 at home with his famous father and step-mom.  In addition, because the RDAP program may also permit extended treatment and transition via half-way house placement and home confinement, Cameron Douglas might even get to watch the Summer 2012 Olympics from the comfort of his own home.

The big follow-up question to all real-world sentencing math is whether we should care or be at all bothered that Cameron Douglas, despite being sentenced to imprisonment for five years in federal court just yesterday, will likely walk out of federal prison in perhaps just over two years. 

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