An encouraging midyear crime assessment and accounts for the great crime decline
Anyone keeping an eye on crime trends will want to be sure to read these two new Substack posts:
From Jeff-alytics, “Assessing Crime At Midyear: The trends aren’t set in stone but they are clearly established.” Excerpts:
Crime almost certainly fell considerably in the United States in the first six months of 2025. The decline in crime that began in 2023 and picked up steam in 2024 has accelerated even faster so far in 2025. Both violent and property crime likely fell with large drops in both murder and motor vehicle theft leading the way.
The national decline in murder stands out due to extraordinary drops in many cities. New Orleans recorded fewer murders through June 2025 than any year since 1970 even in spite of the January 1st terrorist attack. New York City has only recorded fewer murders once through June since 1960 (136 in 2017). Philadelphia recorded the fewest murders since 1969, Los Angeles since 1966, Baltimore since 1965, Detroit since 1964, and San Francisco had the fewest ever recorded (monthly data available to 1960)….
The final word on crime through midyear is that there is a sizable decline in every category of Uniform Crime Report Part I crime. The declines in crime shown by the RTCI data through May suggests crime may decline at or near record levels in every crime type we have measured since 1960. It’s also plausible that multiple crime types will feature the largest drop ever recorded moniker in 2025.
Not every crime is reported to police, there are still six months left in the year for these trends to moderate, and not every city or county is seeing historic declines (or declines at all). Yet the data so far this year paints the picture of declines that began in 2023 and 2024 continuing (and accelerating) through the first half of 2025.
From The Crime Forecast, “Explaining the Crime Decline: The definitive and authoritative account.” An excerpt:
Crime rates have been falling for more than a decade, largely due to a youth cohort that is less prone to offending than any other in modern history. Between 2015 and 2021, the homicide trend momentarily defied the crime decline due to expanding illicit drug markets, alcohol consumption, and firearm availability. Now that these trends are in decline, the homicide rate is going into a ‘correction’ of sorts. In 2025, the homicide rate will be the lowest since 1959. The homicide decline will likely decelerate after 2025, but by 2026 or 2027, the homicide rate may be the lowest ever recorded in the post-World War II era.