Awful start to 2025 after lots of good crime news in 2024

I have been thinking for a few days about a post highlighting positive crime trends in 2024, but I did not want to “jinx” the positive story until 2024 was fully complete.  Depressingly, it turned out to be the first few hours of 2025 that brought awful crime news with the horrific mass murder in downtown New Orleans.  (Notably, this press piece yesterday detailed that in New Orleans in 2024 murders were down 35%, while crime overall in the city was down 26%.)

I sincerely hope the evil mass killing to start 2025 is not a harbinger of a change with respect to a whole lot of positive crime trends.  A quick google news search of “crime in 2024” turns up many press stoies of police reporting, in many major cities nationwide, significant drops in homicides and many other crimes.  Here are a few press pieces detailing the national story:

From ABC News, “US poised to see dramatic drop in homicides for 3rd straight year: More than 5,000 fewer homicides have been recorded this year compared to 2023.”

From the New York Times, “Murders Plunge: We have good news to start your 2025.”

From NPR, “Early data suggests carjackings and car thefts fell in 2024“

From PBS News Hour, “U.S. sees sharp decline in murders and other crimes in 2024“

From Police1, “Violent crime drops in 2024, with 16% fewer homicides nationwide“

For so many reasons, I hope that all the positive crime trends n 2024 continue into 2025 and beyond.  But perhaps the most predicatable reality about crime trends is their unpredictability.  At his Substack, Juff Asher has this much-more analytical predictive effort in this post titled “Predicting The 2025 Crime Trends.”  But that post concludes by noting his “forecast relies on some evidence, but it’s much more of a guess.”