Any inclined to make predictions about the federal prison population — which is now at 155,399 according to BOP?

In this post four years ago as Prez Biden took over from Prez Trump,  I noted that, on the the first full day of the new Biden Administration (January 21, 2021), the federal Bureau of Prisons then reported “Total Federal Inmates” at 151,646.   Today, at this BOP webpage where the total federal prison population is updated on a weekly basis, BOP reports “155,399 Total Federal Inmates” as of January 16, 2025.

The modest growth of the federal prison population over the last four years (less than 2.5%) marks a notable period of relative stability compared to prior recent presidential terms.  This chart with BOP historical data shows the federal prison population increasing (often a lot) every year from 1980 to 2013 and then decreasing (often a lot) every year from 2014 to 2020.  Most recently, the federal prison population increased by 17,000 persons during Prez Obama’s first term (roughly 8%), and then it declined nearly 20,000 persons during Prez Obama’s second term (roughly 9%).  And then the federal prison population decreased by nearly 38,000 persons(!) during Prez Trump’s first term (nearly 20%).  

I am not quite sure how former Prez Biden’s flurry of late-term commutations factor into these numbers.  I believe the “home confinement cohort” who received commutatations were not counted in the prison population since sent to home confinement in the Trump years.  And I believe most if not all of the 2,490 non-violent drug offenders given commutations last week will not be released for weeks or months in some cases.

All of this backstory highlights why I am disinclined to make any bold predictions as to what direction the federal prison population might trend be a year from now, or two years from now, or four years from now.  Four years ago, I did tentatively “predict the federal prison population will be relatively steady during the Biden years, at least initially.”  That was about right, so I suppose I should make the same prediction now for second Trump term, especially since there are a number of cross-cutting factors and posiibilities that might net out as relatively little change to federal prison populations.  (Or not.)  

And remember this Call for Papers for anyone interesting in academic musing on these or related topic.