A deep dive into sentencing patterns for NY felony crime of falsifying business records

This week the New York Times published this lengthy article, headlined “Will Trump Get Jail Time? We Looked at Similar Cases to Find Out,” while provides some statistical context regarding sentences in New York for the crimes that Donald Trump will be sentenced for next month.  Here are excerpts from the piece:

The former president’s unruly behavior at the New York trial makes him a candidate for jail time, as does his felony crime of falsifying business records: Over the past decade in Manhattan, more than a third of these convictions resulted in defendants spending time behind bars, The Times’s examination found. Across New York State, the proportion is even higher — about 42 percent of those convictions led to jail or prison time….

Over the past decade or so, the most likely punishment for someone in New York State convicted on a top charge of felony falsification of business records was jail or prison time, according to data from the New York State Division of Criminal Justice Services. The data shows that 204 people ended up behind bars for that crime, while 174 received probation and no jail time.

The Times review of false records convictions in Manhattan alone — which was based on data from state and local agencies and verified by case files retrieved from the clerk’s office — similarly supports the notion that Mr. Trump could spend a few weeks or months in jail.

The Times found 30 cases in Manhattan since 2014 in which a person was convicted and sentenced on a top charge of felony falsification of business records. Of those cases, only five resulted in probation and no jail time, while 11 involved incarceration.

Defendants in nine of the 11 cases were first-time felony offenders like Mr. Trump and received sentences between one week and 364 days in jail, with the most frequent jail sentence being six months. The other two defendants, both of whom had been previously convicted of felonies, received more than a year in prison.

All but one of the other defendants received a so-called conditional discharge, a sentence that allows them to avoid probation or jail if they follow certain conditions, such as maintaining employment or paying restitution. The remaining man received only community service and a fine.