Various takes on how much time Sam Bankman-Fried will likely serve on his 25-year federal prison sentence
The federal sentencing of FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried to 25 years in prison for his frauds last Thursday has already generated a lot of discussion in blog comments, in various podcasts and in numerous press pieces. I have a number of commentaries worth checking out (and worth skipping), but I have found especially interesting some pieces exploring the question in the headline of this Fast Company article, “How much jail time will Sam Bankman-Fried actually serve?” Here are a few other pieces in the genre:
From Bitrades, “SBF Will Likely Serve Less Than His Full 25-Year Sentence“
From Business Insider, “Sam Bankman-Fried could go to a low-security prison and get out early if he plays his cards right, prison consultants say“
From Decrypt, “SBF Sentenced to 25 Years in Prison — How Many Will He Actually Serve?“
From the New York Post, “Sam Bankman-Fried was sentenced to 25 years in prison — but how much will he actually serve?“
These pieces generally do a reasonable job explaining that SBF will get credit for the nearly eight months he has already been in jail, and also will likely get 15% off for “good time” credit, and also can get “earned time” credits thanks to the FIRST STEP Act. But the cummulative impact of all these potential credits has clearly been added up differently by different folks as reported in the Bitrades article: “Some experts believe Sam Bankman-Fried could spend between 12.5 and 18.5 years in prison for his crimes at FTX.”
Determining precisely how much time SBF “will serve” is challenging in part because the bulk of “earned time” credits from the FIRST STEP Act that he might accrue will not formally reduce his sentence, but will allow his earlier transfer from prison into home confinement. (The USSC recently created this helpful page about “earned time” credits.) If SBF were to leave prison, say, after 14 years, but then must be in home confinement for the next four, one perhaps could claim he “will serve” either 14 years or 18 years. In the end, I suspect most people focus primarily on SBF’s actual time spent in federal prison (and there surely will be more press about SBF leaving prison (likley in the late 2030s) than about the official end of his term (likely some time in the early 2040s).
I sense that the entire federal sentencing and correction system is still adjusting to the new realities in time “served” created by the FIRST STEP Act. And for another SBF-inspired take on how the FSA now alters certain notions of equality in sentencing, Eric Fish has this new Hill commentary headlined “Why is Sam Bankman-Fried treated more leniently than someone facing illegal immigration charges?”
Prior related posts:
- You be the judge: what federal sentence for Sam Bankman-Fried after guilty verdict on seven criminal fraud counts?
- Some early chatter and speculation about Sam Bankman-Fried’s coming federal sentencing
- Should a bounce in crypto markets mean a much lower federal sentence for Sam Bankman-Fried?
- Lawyers for Sam Bankman-Fried in lengthy memo request “a sentence that returns Sam promptly to a productive role in society”
- Some notable developments and commentary on Sam Bankman-Fried’s coming sentencing
- Feds argue in sentencing memo that “legitimate purposes of punishment require a sentence of 40 to 50 years’ imprisonment” for Sam Bankman-Fried
- Rounding up a few sentencing speculations a few days before Sam Bankman-Fried’s sentencing
- Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years in federal prison for his FTX frauds