With new Florida law authorizing death penalty for child rape, how might SCOTUS get to reconsider Kennedy?

Fifteen years ago, in Kennedy v. Louisiana, 554 U.S. 407 (2008), the US Supreme Court decided, by a 5-4 vote, that the Constitution prohibits a state from imposing the death penalty for the crime of child rape.  In the words of the majority opinion: “Based both on consensus and our own independent judgment, our holding is that a death sentence for one who raped but did not kill a child, and who did not intend to assist another in killing the child, is unconstitutional under the Eighth and Fourteenth Amendments.”

In Florida, a multi-month effort to push back on this doctrine culminiated today in the signing of a new law to permit sentencing a child rapist to death.  Here are the basics from this USA Today piece:

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has signed into law a measure making child rape subject to the death penalty, defying a United States Supreme Court ruling. “In Florida, we stand for the protection of children,” DeSantis said at a Monday press conference in Brevard County. “We think that in the worst of the worst cases the only appropriate punishment is the ultimate punishment.”

But, in 2008, U.S. Supreme Court justices issued a 5-4 ruling barring states from imposing the death penalty for the rape of a child, when the crime does not involve a child’s death. The court rules that applying the death penalty in such cases would amount to “cruel and unusual punishment.”

DeSantis, though, has said he thinks the current conservative-majority U.S. Supreme Court may be willing to revisit the earlier ruling. “We think that decision was wrong,” he said at the press conference. “This bill sets up a procedure to be able to challenge that precedent.”

I see that the new Florida death penalty law, House Bill 1297, states expressly that “a sentence of death shall be imposed under this section notwithstanding existing case law which holds such a sentence is unconstitutional under the Florida Constitution and the United States Constitution.”  I suppose that provision helps to provide a means for a test case to emerge in which lower Florida (and federal habeas) courts would presumably feel obligated based on the Kennedy precedent to strike down a capital child rape sentence, but then Florida would keep appealing in the hope of getting the Supreme Court to take up the case and overrule Kennedy. 

In addition to wondering about the facts of any “Kennedy test case,” I cannot help but wonder how long it might take to get to SCOTUS.  There are, surely, hundreds of cases of young child sexual abuse in Florida with the child under age 12 as required by this law.  But, while there will be death eligible cases right away, we would need a prosecutor to charge under this new law and a jury to return a death verdict and recommended sentence before the appeals get going in earnest.  And the appeals would surely take quite some time before SCOTUS would even have a chance to take up a challenge to Kennedy.

Notably, three of the four Justices in dissent in Kennedy are still on the Court (Justices Thomas, Alito and the Chief), while none of the Justices in the Kennedy majority on still on this Court.  I suspect Justice Gorsuch would be a vote to reverse Kennedy, and that Justices Sotomayor, Kagan and Jackson would not be.  I would guess that one, and perhaps both, of Justices Kavanuagh and Barrett would, perhaps on originalist grounds, reverse Kennedy.  But when might they get the chance and are many of the Justices really eager to take this up?