Amazingly great new FBI data: crime down yet again in start of 2011!

December 19, 2011

This AP story reports on great holiday season news concerning crime rates in the United States for the start of 2011: “The FBI said Monday that violent and property crimes reported to police continue to drop despite tough economic times.” Here is more:

“An FBI report states that violent crimes reported in the first half of 2011 were down 6.4 percent compared to the first six months of 2010. The number of property crimes, including burglary, larceny and vehicle theft, decreased 3.7 percent.

“All four offenses in the violent crime category — murder and non-negligent homicide, forcible rape, robbery, and aggravated assault — decreased between the first half of 2010 and 2011. Robbery experienced the biggest drop of 7.7 percent.”

The full FBI crime report discussed in this article is available at this link, and that webpages is also the source for the graphic reprinted here.

What makes this news so amazing as well as great is that (1) crime rates were already at historic modern lows and there is good reason to worry that eventually crime rates will start moving up again, (2) incarceration rates likely declined in the first part of 2011 because many states were releasing prisoners and/or changing sentencing laws in order to cut their corrections spending, and (3) marijuana use by both teenagers and adults likely continued to rise during this period. I will not claim that these data show or even remotely suggests that reducing incarceration rates and increasing pot use actually reduces serious crime, but I will claim that these data undercut assertions that reducing incarceration rates and increasing pot use will result in an increase in serious crime.

Attorney General Holder released this official statement reacting to the FBI report, which (in)appropriately(?) takes credit for this amazing great news:

“Safe neighborhoods are the underpinning of our nation’s prosperity, and this Department of Justice has made protecting the American people from violent crime a top priority. The results of the 2011 Preliminary Uniform Crime Report show that the decline in violent crime in recent years continued in the first half of 2011.

“Working with our state, local and tribal partners, federal prosecutors and agents have increased community participation in our shared efforts to hold accountable those whose illegal activity spread fear into our communities. We have targeted violent criminals involved in gang-related activity from Florida to California, organized crime networks in cities across this country and drug trafficking organizations that extend beyond our borders.”

We could (and perhaps should) have a huge debate over whether and how much credit the Obama/Holder administration merits for the continued decline in crime rates over the past few years. But this amazingly great news on national crimes rates confirm my view that calls from many on the right for AG Holder to resign are just a story about electoral politics and have nothing to do with effective criminal justice policies.

Some related posts on the great modern crime decline: