Cunningham predictions, anyone?
Readers continue to add great comments to my first reflections on the Cunningham oral argument. And today’s has brought a little Cunningham media coverage from The Daily Journal and the Los Angeles Times. Also, I especially liked Andrew Siegal’s insights based on the Cunningham argument here at PrawfsBlawg.
But now I would like to turn from reactions to predictions. For me, the Cunningham oral argument confirmed my own disinclination to make any strong predictions about how the Justices would deal with the case. Based on the argument, it seems that Justices Kennedy and Breyer might be warming to Blakely (at least as a matter of stare decisis), and yet either Justices Alito and Roberts may take former Justice O’Connor’s place as Lord of anti-Aprrendi-land.
Given all the complications surrounding California law and post-Booker federal sentencing, today I have been thinking about whether SCOTUS might look for an easy way out in Cunningham. In my view, a DIG would be very irresponsible (and perhaps more harmful to California than a decision either way), but perhaps the Justices can find some other way to dispose of this case without coming fully to blows over the reach of Blakely and the implications of Booker. Still, I suspect that both Justice Stevens and Justice Scalia might not sign on (or sit by quietly) if the Court pursued an easy way out that did not give Apprendi and Blakely its due.
So, smart readers, anyone have any great ideas or have any grand predictions? What do you think SCOTUS should and/or will do in Cunningham? Care to predict who writes, what they might say, and how many votes opinions get? (For my hopes, if not predictions, check out the advice that Stephanos Bibas and I have for the Cunningham Court in our new piece “Making Sentencing Sensible”.)