What sentence should former Gov Rowland get under Booker?

This past December (post-Blakely, but pre-Booker), former Connecticut Governor John Rowland pleaded guilty to one count of conspiracy to steal honest service, a felony that carries a sentence of up to five years in prison (background here).  According to this AP story, Rowland is due to be sentenced this Friday by Connecticut US District Court Judge Peter Dorsey and “more than 200 letters [have been sent] to the sentencing judge from both angry state residents and prominent supporters of the governor, including the president of Yale University.”

The many letters sent to Judge Dorsey spotlights that Rowland’s sentencing will serve as a fascinating case-study in the new world of Booker sentencing.  Unless the terms have changed, Rowland’s federal plea deal (previously discussed here and here) calculates the guideline sentencing range of 15-21 months of imprisonment.  The plea agreement also contemplates that Rowland will argue for a downward departure from the guideline range of 15-21 months on various grounds related to his minor role in the offense and his professional and community contributions.

It will be interesting to see if Judge Dorsey chooses to follow the guidelines, or to depart, or to vary based on the 3553(a) sentencing factors.  I can think of good arguments to support all the possibilities.  Readers are encouraged to use the comments to indicate what they think the sentence should be (or to predict what they think it will be) given our new Booker realities.